Exclusive Netbettor Texas Hold'em Article:

The Texas Hold 'em Nightmare:
Playing Pocket Jacks 

OK now-be honest with me. When you lay awake at night, and your thoughts turn to Texas hold em hands that give you fits, what's the first hand that springs to mind? If you're like millions of other Texas hold em players, this question can only have one answer: Pocket F**king Jacks!!

Ah yes-the dreaded fish hooks. Why do Texas hold em players find them so hard to play? To answer this we must first acquaint ourselves with the poker concept of pot equity, which is really just a fancy way of saying 'the percentage of the pot that belongs to any given hand'. For example, you have the A A, and your opponent has the A K. At this point your pot equity is around 90%, since you expect to win the pot about 90% of the time. When you take pocket aces into a field of ten players in a limit Texas hold em poker game ( don't laugh, as this happens on Pacific Poker all the time) your pot equity stands at around 30%, since you will end up dragging the cookies around 3/10 of the time. Now the interesting thing about pocket jacks is that the way in which they earn their pot equity changes-and changes dramatically-as more players enter the pot. Sound confusing? Let me explain.

Take a hand like T 9; a fine Texas hold em hand, to be sure, although it's certainly no powerhouse. Now a hand like that earns most of its pot equity from the fact that it can make a number of big straights, and also some decent flushes. It's a hand that has 'big hand' equity, but not a lot of 'pair equity'. Since you will often need a big hand to win Texas hold em pots being contested by many players, we usually say that 9 T is a hand that prefers multi-way action. Compare this with A T; here we have a hand that has 'pair equity', which makes it a good hand to take into a short field-where a big pair will usually take down the pot-but not such a good hand to take into a multi-way pot, since you won't make as many big hands with it. These examples are fairly consistent, and most Texas hold em hands fall fairly neatly into one of these two categories; either a Texas hold em hand prefers multi way action (meaning it's pot equity comes from its big hand potential) or a short pot (where its pot equity comes from its ability to win with only slight improvement, or sometimes no improvement at all).

This is a fine way to evaluate Texas hold em starting hands; it's simple, it's fairly accurate, and most importantly it makes money for the players who understand it. But this type of analysis starts to break down when we look at pocket jacks (and to a lesser extent pocket T's and 9's). When you have the 'hooks in a short pot most of the pot equity comes from the fact that it's a big pair. However, when the pot becomes contested by many players the equity shifts, and the hand's pot equity comes from the fact that it can flop a big set.

How does this shift impact Texas hold em pre-flop strategy? The answer to this question is actually more difficult than you might initially intuit. Well get more into that in a minute, but before we do let's get one thing cleared up: When you have the opportunity to eliminate players from contending for the pot you should always raise pre-flop. There are virtually no exceptions to this. Example: You have your hated jacks in late position, and five players have limped to you. You should raise. Some poker theorists will argue that you should just call and see how the hand develops. This thinking is wrong. You raise here for three reasons*.

Reason 1) You would like to get rid of the blinds-no matter what they have (or the button if you're not last to act). Obviously you want the blinds to fold if they have a hand that holds an ace, king or queen, but you also want them to fold hands like 86o, or 74s. Why? Because if you flop an overpair---and that's a flop you want to see-many, many hands that are ten high or lower are going to flop some kind of draw to beat you. The fact is that if either player in the blinds has any kind of hand at all-and by any hand I mean anything suited, or anything that could make at least two straights using both cards-they would probably be correct to call. By raising you give them a chance to make a mistake and fold.

Reason 2) The simple fact that you have a big pair offers substantial pot equity. If eight of you are in the pot, and you ran out the flop, turn and river, you would win more often than 12.5% of the time. Thus, you're getting an overlay on every dime that goes into the pot. You cannot pass up the chance to make money pre-flop and expect a high win rate in Texas hold 'em. Edges don't come up very often, so you need to take advantage of them when you can.

Reason 3) By raising you will often have the option of getting to the river for one small bet if the flop is a disappointment. This is especially true in games where players tend to 'check to the raiser'. Example: You raise pre-flop, and the flop comes AQ8. If everyone checks to you you'll frequently be able to drag your hand to the river by betting, since many Texas hold em players will also check to you on the turn. Considering that there are already 13 small bets in the pot, and you will improve to a set of jacks on either the turn or the river about 8% of the time, you're thrilled if you can bet this flop and look at the river for free.

Reason 4) A raise does not appreciably decrease your chances of winning the pot. Please read that first sentence again! I repeat-- A raise does not appreciably decrease your chances of winning the pot. One of the arguments against raising here is that everyone will check to you, you'll bet, and then everyone will be getting proper odds to draw out on you. If, however, you had just called, someone might have bet in front of you, thereby giving you the chance to raise and shorten the field if the flop agreed with your hand.

Whuh? In the games I play in a guy who flopped second pair, or a gutshot, or an overcard or two is calling two bets as easily as he would have called one. So this logic just doesn't hold up. If you're in a game where people actually fold weak draws for two bets on the flop then yes, this thinking has merit. But judging from the emails we receive most of you are playing in smaller limit games, and as you know nobody in these games is folding A2 on a 832 flop-no matter what the price. Thus, if you're playing 'no fold em Texas hold em' the chance to work in a flop raise-as opposed to a meager flop bet-isn't going to impact your chances of winning the hand. But by raising pre-flop you assure yourself of winning a bigger pot those times that your hand holds up.

The implications here are hopefully easy to follow. When in late position with the jacks the pot equity your big pair has earned does not go down if you raise pre-flop, since your chances of winning the pot remain close to the same-but your 'flop a set and win a monster' equity has increased, since you're now building a bigger pot. And even if your chances of winning have decreased somewhat you've compensated for that by pumping the pot, which means you'll win that much more money when your hand holds up unimproved. In sum: The money you'll lose from a decreased number of wins will not outweigh the increased pot size in the pots you do win.

So-- hopefully that settles that. But what if you're in the blinds with jacks and six players have limped in? At this point you might want to consider checking. Yes, you are turning down an immediate gain by not raising. But there are other factors to consider. First, a raise isn't going to get anyone to fold. In 'reason 1' listed above a raise might get one or both of the blinds to fold, which results in dead money that you will win a disproportionate amount of the time. Obviously that condition doesn't apply here. Second, you will not have the opportunity to get to the river cheaply by betting the flop and checking the turn. While 'reason 2' from the above list still applies the other reasons do not.

And there is a third reason; namely, your hand's pot equity has shifted dramatically, so that your 'big pair' equity is not nearly as strong as your 'big hand' equity. This shift occurs because it will be damn hard to get your hand to the showdown for 1 or 1 ½ small bets if overcards flop. Consider: You're in the blind, and raise six limpers with pocket jacks. The flop comes AQ8. You check (I hope nobody argues against that), one guy bets and two more call. You're getting 15:1 pot odds, and your chances of improving to a set of jacks on the turn are around 22:1, so even with implied odds it's hard to justify a call here. As a result you fold. Now, if you 'knew' somehow that everyone would check the turn you would gladly call, since getting 15:1 is a fine price for an underpair with possible back-door straight potential. But there's no guarantee that this will happen-and, in fact, it probably won't.

There are scores of other considerations that we could address here, but hopefully you get the idea. When you have the positional advantage, and have a hand that has immediate value (even a hand like ace high) your chances of winning the pot unimproved are much, much higher than they are from early position. This is true whether you have one opponent in the hand or nine. As a result we see this 'pot equity shift' with the pocket jacks in early position, while that same dynamic is far less pronounced with the same jacks in late position.

The moral of this story? Keep raising those pocket jacks in late position!! Some of you are still just calling with them (I know because I see you do it ), and you're leaving money on the table every time you do.

Download the Poker Podcast of this article

Return to Exclusive Netbettor Poker Articles

Other Poker Strategy Articles:
Call or Three Bet?
Large and Multiway Pots
Player Profiling