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Playing Ace High Part III
Ace High on the Turn

The first consideration we’ll examine here are the number of players still active in the hand. The more players that are in the pot, the less inclined you should be to play ace-high aggressively. In fact, you should almost always be checking ace-high on the turn if you have more than one opponent. Why? Because while it’s possible that one player called your flop bet with nothing, it’s that much less likely that two players did. Consider: You have A Q, and raise after two players limp in. The small blind folds, the big blind folds, and both limpers call. The flop comes 9 5 2. Both check to you, and you bet. Both call. Now the turn brings the J. What’s your play?

I would check. If you assume that you had the first player beat on the flop about 35% of the time after you bet and he called (note: This is my estimate, and it may or may not be correct depending on the playing style of your opponents) and you assume the same about the second player, then there’s only a 12% chance that you have both of them beat now (actually it’s a little less than that, since you have to factor in the odds that somebody hit the jack on the turn). How do we figure that? We multiply .35 times .35, which gives us around .12. With only 4.25 big bets in the pot, there isn’t enough of an overlay to justify betting. The exception to this occurs if your opponents are the type who routinely call on the flop with nothing, yet also routinely fold on the turn with nothing. While there are players like this out there, most decent players tend to think there are more of them out there than actually exist. Also, if you do happen to be ahead right now, and you get outdrawn on the river, this isn’t a real disaster UNLESS your opponent would have folded on the turn for a bet. If he would have folded, you’ve given him the pot. If he would have called anyway, all you’ve really lost is the turn bet you would have gained those times that he missed on the river. So, in a low limit game where players are not hesitant to go to the river with next to nothing, a bet here isn’t mandatory—for the simple reason that a bet isn’t essential here if it’s not going to get anyone to fold.

Using this same example, we can see that a bet here would be mandatory if you were up against only one player (this assumes your lone opponent plays an average or below average brand of poker. Against a good player you can check with confidence here, since there are very, very few hands he could have that you can beat which he would have only called with on a flop like this). Assuming your hand is good 35% of the time when you bet and get called here, we can see you’re getting an overlay if you choose to bet. Also, a bet here will virtually assure you of a free showdown against one opponent, which you should almost always take unless you improve on the river.

Another thing you should try and get in the habit of doing on the turn is intuiting how this hand is going to play out on the river. Some players, for example, will almost always bet the river if a player who bet the flop checks the turn. Against opponents like this, you should virtually always be checking the turn if the pot is still fairly small (say, under 5 big bets). Why? Because you’re already signed on to showing down your hand, so you might as well play it in such a way that allows you to pick up another bet. Let’s take a closer look: Say you’re in middle position with A J, and raise after one limper bets. Both blinds fold. The limper plays badly, goes too far with his hands, and likes to bluff (read: he’s a typical low limit Party Poker player). The flop brings a disappointing T 6 5. The limper checks, you bet. He calls.

This call doesn’t mean anything to you. It could mean anything from a set of 5’s to A 7 offsuit. You figure your chances of still being ahead are probably somewhere in the 35-45% range, although you really have no idea. Now the turn brings the 5. The limper checks. What’s your play?

Check. If the limper was the type who usually dumped his hand on the turn you could bet and take the free showdown on the river. But your opponent here is a little more tenacious than that. Also, you know the chances that he’ll bluff the river are high. What does this mean to you? Well, it means two things. First, it means that a bet here won’t ‘save you the pot’ if it turns out that the river card would have improved your opponent to a winning hand. He’s not folding on the turn (or at least probably isn’t), so the two of you are going to see the river, and a bet on the turn isn’t going to change thatg. If the river card hits him, it hits him. Second, you know that after your check on the turn he’s going to bet the river a disproportionate amount of the time. You’re going to call this bet, so you might as well do what you can on the turn to set up a situation where your opponent will be enticed into putting his money in the pot with the worst hand. By checking the turn, you have essentially ‘induced a bluff’ from your opponent on the river.

Ah ha! I know what you’re thinking. Your thinking: ‘Guy, you idiot—if he’s going to call a turn bet nearly 100% of the time, OR, if I check the turn he’s going to bet the river nearly 100% of the time, then why don’t I just bet the turn? Either way I get him to put one big bet in the pot as a huge dog, so why should I wait?’

To which I say this; Yes, your right in thinking that a turn bet has about as much expected value as a river bet. But, when you wait for the river you’re eliminating the chance that your opponent will outplay you. Let’s say you bet the turn, and get raised. What do you do now? Unless you really know your man, you’ll have to fold. Which is too bad, since there’s a) a chance that he just check-raised you on a bluff, and you folded the winning hand, or b) he had you beat, but you would have picked up an ace or a jack on the river to beat him. All told, waiting for the river is better against a player like this since you’re not going to have to do any guessing. If you’re ahead, you’re going to win the pot. Period. And there’s nothing he can do to change that.

Next week we’ll take a look ace-high on the river, and also look at a few odd situations that require a departure from the standards we’ve set out in this series of articles. Until then, good luck to you!

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Part IV: Ace High on the River