Exclusive Netbettor Texas Hold'em Article:

Crushing the Microlimits
The Dark Art of the Suckout Part II

While a winning player doesn’t have to be immune to the joys of sucking out, he does need to make sure that he chases only when circumstances dictate that it’s a profitable play. Here we’ll look at two more factors that have to be accounted for when you’re deciding whether or not to chase; relative position, and gauging how your card will affect your opponent’s hands.

1) Relative Position
Relative position is, simply, your position relative to the player who initiated the most recent bet or raise. If you’re on this player’s left, your relative position is bad. If you’re on this player’s right, your relative position is said to be good. Example: You're in the big blind with J 9. The player under-the-gun (the first player after the blinds) raises, three players call, the small blind folds and you call. Now the flop comes Q 9 7.

In a case like this, your relative position is good. Notice that if you check here, and the under-the-gun player bets (which he almost certainly will, given that he raised pre-flop), you will be the last person to act. Since you don’t have to worry about a raise coming from behind you, you’ll be able to make a much more informed decision when it comes time for you to act (obviously you will have to worry about a raise coming from behind you if the under-the-gun player bets and somebody raises his bet.

Here you’d be concerned that the under-the-gun player would make it three bets with an overpair, or perhaps a hand like AQ. However, this situation doesn’t affect you, since you would almost certainly fold on the flop if you had to call two bets cold. The more common scenario has the under-the-gun player betting, and a couple players calling. In this situation you’ll know it can only cost you one bet to see the turn, since your action will close the betting.

Another benefit of having an excellent relative position is that you’ll frequently have the option of check-raising the flop bettor on the turn if you hit a good card, thereby trapping the field for two bets. So, not only does your relative position allow you to gauge with a high degree of accuracy just how much it’s going to cost you to see the turn, it also improves your implied odds, since you stand to make more money when you do catch good on the turn.

Compare the above scenario to the following. Again you’re in the big blind with the same J 9. Five players call, the small blind raises, and everyone calls. Now the flop comes Q 9 7. The small blind bets.

This isn’t an easy hand to play well. You have middle pair with a backdoor flush draw—a decent hand, though by no means a powerhouse—and you have a gaggle of opponents yet to act. The board is fairly coordinated (no flush draw, but straight draws abound), and the small blind’s raise before the flop suggests he has a big hand. You’d like to see the turn here, but you’d really like to see it cheaply. But, with your position relative to the pre-flop raiser being so bad, you don’t know if you’ll have that option.

So, should you call here? That depends. If the game was unusually passive, you probably should. Likewise, if the game was aggressive I’d fold and feel good about it. In a ‘typical’ game I’d probably fold, unless the small blind had shown the propensity to raise pre-flop with some marginal holdings. The main point here is this: when your relative position is good, a call here is an absolute no-brainer. In this spot, though, a fold is frequently the right play. Such is the power of position.

2) How hitting your card will affect your opponents' hands
Let’s say you have A 9 on the button, and call after four limpers. The small blind folds, the big blind knuckles, and you take a flop of T 7 6. All check to the player on your right, who bets. What’s your play?

You fold. You have a gutshot, but it’s not to the nuts. Getting 7:5 to 1 on a call here is not nearly enough. But let’s say you have Q 9, call on the button after four limpers, and see a flop of T 8 5. What would you do if the man to your right bet?

Getting 7:5 to 1 here I’d probably call. Why? Two reasons: First, a jack has a chance of giving one of my opponents a quality second-best hand. And second, I can improve to an open ended straight draw on the turn with a seven—which also happens to be a card that can improve one of my opponents to two pair. In the first example, it’s less likely that the card which will improve my hand will also give one of my opponents a second best-but bettable—hand. Such is not the case in the second example, since a jack could give someone top pair, or two pair. In the first hand, if I catch on the turn I can only get real action from a hand that I’m tied with. In the second hand I can get action from a number of different hands (including a slowplayed set, or flopped two pair) if I spike a jack on the turn.

And so we conclude our exploration into the art of the suck out. Hopefully you’ve taken something away from this series that will improve your game.

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Other Poker Strategy Articles:
The Check-Raise Part I
The Value Bet
Playing a Draw