Exclusive Netbettor Texas Hold'em Article:

Call or Three-bet?

Here’s the situation: you’ve just sat down in a full, ten-handed Texas hold ‘em game, and find yourself on the button after playing one orbit. The cards are dealt, and you look down to see A Q. The first player calls, the second calls, and the third raises. Two more players call before the action gets to you. Clearly you’re going to play the hand, but what’s your move?

As with most poker questions of this sort, you could probably argue that I haven’t given you enough information to allow you to make an informed decision. However, I can tell you what your primary consideration should be when making this decision. Although determining the optimal play will require you to take a number of factors into account; i.e., what the raising standards are of the original raiser, are the cold callers tight or loose players, etc. etc.-- you can usually ‘shotgun’ your way to the right answer by asking yourself two questions:

1) Will I have a reasonable chance of winning this pot without showing down the best hand?

2) Do I feel confident that I have the best hand right now?

Now then, how is it that answering these questions will guide you towards the correct play? Because by asking them, and answering them honestly, you will have already taken most of the relevant considerations into account. Look again at our example. There were two callers already in the pot before the third player raised. Typically, this means the raiser has a ‘real’ hand, since no reasonable player would raise with the intention of stealing the pot after one player (much less two) have called. Also, you have two players who called the raise 'cold' (i.e. called the raise, 2 bets, without yet having had an opportunity to call 1 bet). These two factors suggest that the original raiser has a fairly strong hand, and that the players who called the raise cold have stronger than usual holdings as well; in fact, it’s possible—perhaps even likely—that at least one of these three players, and perhaps more than one, are holding a hand that’s significantly stronger than your own.

Now you can’t fold here before the flop. If your hand wasn’t suited, you certainly could, but with a suited AQ you’re usually going to have to look at the flop, particularly since the pot is being contested my many players. (if you had to call three bets cold, instead of two, you could fold and feel good about it). But you do have reason to believe that your hand might be weaker than at least one of your opponents’, which should incline you towards not playing your hand aggressively if you miss the flop. Also, with this many players involved, your chances of bluffing your way to victory would appear to be negligible.

It would follow, then, that you should try to look at the flop as cheaply as possible. In this case that would mean simply calling the raise. When you three-bet, you’re typically trying to accomplish one of two objectives; either you’re trying to seize the initiative, so that you might steal the pot on a later betting round if both you and your opponent have weak holdings, or you’re trying to get as much money in the middle with what you suspect is the best hand. But neither of these conditions are met in the prior example. Seizing the initiative does you little good in multi-way pots, since you’ll probably have to show down the best hand to win. And there’s a fair chance your hand is dominated by at least one of your opponents’ holdings, which argues against fattening the pot.

Now, let’s look at another situation. Say you’re again on the button with A Q, and everyone has folded to the player that’s two positions to your right. He raises. The next player folds, and the action’s on you. Again, ask the two questions:

1) Will I have a reasonable chance of winning this pot without showing down the best hand?

2) Do I feel confident that I have the best hand right now?

While the answer to both questions was an emphatic ‘no’ in the first example, the answers here should be an equally emphatic ‘yes’. When a player opens the pot for a raise in a late position he’s often simply trying to steal the blinds. This means that your hand is likely far superior to your opponents. Also, a re-raise might get the pot heads-up (assuming the blinds fold), or at least narrow it to a three-way competition, in which case your chances of winning the pot even if you miss the flop have gone way up. Thus, you should almost always three-bet here.

As with all ‘poker rules’, this one has an exception. While the answers to the above two questions will usually lead you to the correct play, there are instances when it’s correct to three-bet even when both questions can clearly be answered in the negative. This occurs when the pot is being contested by many players (typically seven or more), and you have a hand that a) plays very well against many players, and b) would not appear to be in jeopardy of being dominated by any of your opponents. For instance, say you have a small pocket pair on the button. The first player has raised, and everyone else has called. At this point you can strongly consider re-raising. What you’re trying to do is build a massive pot before the flop in the hopes that, should you hit the flop hard, your opponents will play on with mediocre hands that they would otherwise fold. So, if you have two fours in the hole, and are lucky enough to spike a four on the flop, your re-raise pre-flop may entice your opponents to look at the turn and river with hands as week as two overcards. Since two overcards are drawing virtually dead to three of a kind, you’re happy to have them along for the ride.

Be aware, however, that the above is just what I indicated—an exception. In fact, if you chose never to three-bet in this spot, you wouldn’t be losing virtually any value. If you ask yourself the two questions listed above, and answer them to the best of your abilities, you’ll almost always find yourself making the correct play when it’s time to either ‘call or three-bet’.

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The Art of the Slowplay
Player Profiling
The Pre-flop Raise in Early Position