Figuring the True Line

Question
In your opinion what is the easiest ‘big time' sport to beat for gambling purposes?

Answer
None of them! There is no free lunch in the poker world, and there sure as hell isn't one on the sports betting market (unless you factor in bonuses—then the lunch is free every day ). If, however, you had to rank the sports in order of relative ‘beatability' I would rank them as follows.

1.  NFL

2.  NCAAB

3.  NCAAF

4.  NBA

5. NHL

6.  MLB

A few things about this ranking. First, I'm talking about beating the sport by betting straight sides—no middling, and no betting totals. Second, I rank the NFL first because you can actually make money by betting 6 pt. two team teasers at -110 or better if you restrict your bets to games where you ‘capture' the entire 3 and 7. Were it not for this I would probably rank the NFL below the NCAAB.

Lastly, PLEASE remember that nobody—and I mean nobody— hits 57% or better against a large selection of plays against widely available lines. There may be some guys hitting 55-57% (although I don't know any), so I have to allow for this possibility… but nobody's hitting more than that. If you hear someone claiming a winning percentage that exceeds this mark you will know automatically that it's a scam. Don't send any money to these guys—they are marketers, not handicappers.

Find out why sportsbook bonuses are a "the lunch is free everyday"

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